Step 3.9 Modelling the outbreak and making projections (VIDEO)

Downloadable material

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Step outline: PDF

Video file: MP4 (43MB)

Video transcript: PDF

Images: ZIP

Further reading

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, LSHTM

West African Ebola Epidemic after One Year — Slowing but Not Yet under Control

WHO Ebola response team letter in New England Journal of Medicine summarising findings and short-term projections. More detail is in the appendix - see next link

Supplement to NEJM article on West African Ebola epidemic after one year

This contains detailed information on the epidemic to December 2014. See page 45 for estimates of R (called Rt here). And page 46 for projections and comparison of the data with previous projections.

Last modified: Tuesday, 20 October 2015, 2:26 PM