Step 3.9 Modelling the outbreak and making projections (VIDEO)
Downloadable material
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Step outline: PDF
Video file: MP4 (43MB)
Video transcript: PDF
Images: ZIP
Further reading
Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, LSHTM
West African Ebola Epidemic after One Year — Slowing but Not Yet under Control
WHO Ebola response team letter in New England Journal of Medicine summarising findings and short-term projections. More detail is in the appendix - see next link
Supplement to NEJM article on West African Ebola epidemic after one year
This contains detailed information on the epidemic to December 2014. See page 45 for estimates of R (called Rt here). And page 46 for projections and comparison of the data with previous projections.